You're Reading: Everything to Know About Hole In One Statistics
The idea of perfection in golf is almost an oxymoron. In a game with little margin for error defined by inches, it is rare that one comes upon a perfect round, hole, or even shot. However, the elusive hole-in-one provides that brief moment of satisfaction of a swing that resulted in absolute perfection. While luck certainly plays a significant role in carding an ace (South African tour professional James Kingston’s hole-in-one off the tree is plenty evidence of this luck), a golfer’s skill certainly cannot be overlooked. According to our data, the Tour Professionals on both the PGA and DP World (formerly the European Tour) Tours have an ace conversion rate of 0.0004166. In other words, for roughly every 2,400 par 3s played by any player, a hole in one will be made by someone.
Professional Hole In One Conversion Rate is 0.0004166.
— PGA and DP World Tours data since roughly 2000
As stated earlier, we have collected the data on all par 3s from both the PGA and DP World Tours. Our data from the PGA Tour began in the 2001 season at the Mercedes Championships on 1/11/2001. For the European Tour/DP World Tour, our data begins at the start of the 1999-2000 wraparound schedule at the Johnnie Walker Classic on 11/11/1999. What we have then is every single score recorded on every par 3 from within this period. From here, it is a simple equation to determine both the number of Hole in Ones and the odds of making a Hole in One (Number of 1s made on Par 3s / Number of Par 3s in the dataset).
A minor note is that par 3s played in team or match play contests such as the Ryder Cup or the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, which adopted a two-man team format since 2017, are not included in the dataset. Unfortunately, there have been Hole in Ones recorded at the Ryder and other tournaments that fit into this category. For a Ryder Cup (where not every hole is even guaranteed to be played) the greatest number of par 3s to be played is 288; therefore a Hole in One made yields odds of 0.003472, almost 10 times better than the overall average.
Nevertheless, we can be confident that with 3,072,141 par 3s in our sample size, the law or large numbers suggests that our average will be very close to the population average. Furthermore, when considering guidelines for collecting accurate sample sizes, there is homogeneity in the data for hole in ones on the professional tours. In other words, there is nothing that suggests that there is a greater or lesser likelihood for par 3s at match play or team events. The golfers are from the same group of professionals and the courses are held at the same caliber courses.
Since the year 2000, when our data begins, Australian Robert Allenby has recorded the most hole-in-ones, with 9. In total, Allenby has 10 professional hole-in-ones, the most of all time. Below shows the Australian’s 9 hole-in-ones along with his proximity to the hole value and ranking for the corresponding year.
Note: The proximity distances shown reflect the golfer’s proximity with approaches from the fairway in the year in which the corresponding hole-in-one was made. Data is not available before 2002, and data does not exist on shots from the tee on par 3s.
Perhaps surprisingly, Allenby made his hole-in-ones on particularly long par 3s. General wisdom might have it that more hole-in-ones would be made on shorter length holes where the proximity error is smaller. Allenby does not simply defy the odds and hit his long irons and fairway woods better than his mid irons and wedges. He too has a smaller average proximity as he moves up to higher lofted clubs. Nevertheless, the average distance of the 9 aces listed above is 207.55 yards. Furthermore, 6 of them were on par 3s that played 200 yards or more. Lastly, aside from his final two aces, Allenby managed to rank in the top 50 out of 200 in proximity distance for the year, showing that there is certainly skill involved.
Miguel Ángel Jiménez is tied for second with 7 aces across the European and PGA Tours from 2000. Below are his 7:
Jiménez also recorded three hole-in-ones in 1990 as a 26-year old. Known as the most interesting man in golf, frequently found savoring a Cuban cigar or Rioja red wine, he has amassed plenty of libations thanks to his aces.
So, we know that the probability for making a hole-in-one is 0.0004166. However, since 2000, there are several players who have beat the odds, making aces look somewhat routine. Check out the top 5 list:
Someone who is just outside the top 5 is Jordan Spieth, who has recorded 4 aces in his 9 years on tour. At 28 years of age, Spieth mathematically is on track to surpass the PGA Tour record of 10 aces. In 18 more years, he would theoretically rack up another 8 bringing his total to 12, two ahead of Allenby’s 10.
On the professional tours, winning at least once in consecutive seasons is a challenge. Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer each won in 17 consecutive seasons. Tiger Woods accomplished a streak of 14 from 1996 to 2009. Streaks of consecutive seasons with at least one hole-in-one is even more elusive.
4 YearsSimply getting a hole is rare. Of course, several players have had many professional hole-in-ones. However, scoring multiple aces in the same year really beats the odds. Assuming a golfer plays in 32 events in a season and makes the cut in 26 events, with four par 3s a round, he will have played (26 x 4 Rounds + 6 x 2 Rounds) x (4) = 464 par 3s. Based on the probability of 0.0004166, the odds of getting more than 1 hole-in-one is 1.64% or 0.0164. Miguel Ángel Jiménez and Elliot Saltman are the only two men since 2000 to have three aces in a single season.
Assuming a typical 156-man field with the top 70 making the cut, roughly 1,808 Par 3s are played in a given event. Mathematically, then, on average, a hole-in-one should be made on tour every 1.33 events. However, some events have beat this expectation soundly. In 2009, aces were flying at the RBC Canadian Open. In particular, in the second round, four players carded a 1 on the par 3 15th hole (132 Yards), demonstrating why hole-in-one insurance is a good idea especially on the PGA Tour. Each golfer took home a BMW Z4 Roadster with MSRP value of $61,900.
The 2004 John Deere Classic, the 2006 TCL Classic, the 2011 PGA Tour Qualifying Tournament, and the 2015 BMW PGA Championship all were witnesses to five hole-in-ones made during the tournament.
Since 2000, the 16th hole at Augusta National Golf Club has confidently been the home to the most hole-in-ones, 17 to be exact. 14 of these aces were made in the final round, despite the cut that means only about half of the field made it to the final round. This is no coincidence. The traditional Sunday pin placement on the 16th hole allows players to use the ridge in the middle of the green to funnel their shots right down towards the pin. Thanks to the ridge and the slope, the margin for error is certainly greater than the 4.25 inches that is the diameter of the hole.
Statistically, despite playing courses that play longer, firmer, and faster, PGA tour players have been shooting lower scores than they were thirty or forty years ago. Thus, the simple question is whether improved scoring has any positive correlation to the number of hole-in-ones made by year. Technology has certainly improved: irons go longer, launch higher, land softer, are more controlled and forgiving. Let’s look at the data.
Ultimately, it appears that while the 1980s had fewer hole-in-ones, the number of aces by decade has somewaht leveled off since the 90s. In fact, the average annual ace rate is highest in the 1990s at 32.9. This makes sense, considering that the advent of hybrid and resuce clubs as well as the Titleist golf ball occurred in the early 1990s. Keep in mind, though, that this conclusion does not take into account the number of par 3s played in each decade, which we do not have the data to analyze. More par 3s played will logically lead to more aces.
In a perfect world where probabilities predict an expected event and that event always occurs, every professional golfer would make an ace for every 2,400 par 3s they play. Of course, there are a multitude of other variables involved: par 3 difficulty, course conditions, weather, even pin placements. Nevertheless, we might expect that players would experience the effect of these variables equally; meaning, over 2,400 holes, each player would face roughly the same number of truly unlikely and likely (… well maybe not likely but more likely) opportunities to score an ace. Furthermore, evaluating the data from over 7,000 players since 2000, at least the bulk of players should fit the odds. However, note the histogram below which demonstrates the disproportionate allotment of hole-in-ones.
Statisticians refer to this graph as being heavily right skewed. In other words, the vast majority of players have rates of making an ace of less than the population average of 0.0004166. The graph is right skewed because a relatively few number of golfers have made aces significantly more frequently than the probability would suggest. For greater perspective, the median ace rate is 0 despite the average being 0.0004166. The median represents the majority.
After all this discussion of hole-in-ones and probability, let’s discuss the specifics of how probability works with respective to making aces. To begin, it is important to understand how to interpret the figure 0.0004166. Simply stated, this is the probability that on any given shot you (rather a professional golfer) will make a hole-in-one. However, let’s say you wanted to know what the probability is of making a hole-in-one hitting 500 shots to a par 3? You might be tempted to multiply 500 by 0.0004166 = 0.2083. Yet, this calculation does not produce a probability; instead it produces the expected value. Thus, after 500 attempts at a hole-in-one, I would expect to make 0.2083 aces. Obviously, this is an unrealistic number.
Try with 2,400 attempts, and the expected value is 0.9998 (or 1). This makes sense since on average, professional golfers will make an ace every 2,400 times. However, you may be surprised that the actual probability that a pro plays out this expected value is only 36.8%. Coincidentally, the odds of not making a hole-in-one under these circumstances are also 36.8%. The odds then of making one or more hole-in-ones is 73.2%. How do we know this?
Binomial distribution answers the question to ‘what is the probability that an event will occur x number of times in a given number of trials?’ In our case, the event is the making of a hole-in-one. Consequently, the probability mass function (or formula that generates a probability under binomial distribution) works as follows: 1) determine all the combinations possible in the sequence of trials; 2) calculate the probability for a combination to occur; 3) multiply the number of combinations by the probability that any combination will occur.
For example, there are three combinations possible for making exactly one hole-in-one in three attempts: 1) Ace, Miss, Miss; 2) Miss, Ace, Miss; 3) Miss, Miss, Ace. Below shows the probability mass formula.
Use the online calculator below to quickly calculate hole-in-one probability.
There’s a lot to consider about hole-in-ones. Is making a hole-in-one skill or luck? This is not an easy question to answer. If there is a strong positive correlation that exists between a player’s performance on par 3 tee shots and the probability that they will make an ace, then we can assume that skill is the more important factor. With data, this can be answered. Unfortunately, the issue is that the data is not available or is not readily available.
Now, with all this knowledge, maybe you will improve your own probability of scoring an ace. Just Maybe…
